Hey everyone, it’s Leo, and I’m back with another political blog! Today we’ll talk about something a little unlike the topics of most of my blogs: the impeachment inquiry against President Trump, and in what ways it has the potential to benefit or harm Democrats in their effort to take back the White House.
To clear some confusion, let’s start with a summary of the complaint filed by a whistleblower, an anonymous provider of secretive information, in August that sparked Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s unsuspecting approval of the inquiry against the president.
According to a whistleblower complaint filed in August, President Trump, on a phone call with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky, asked the Ukranian president to do a “favor” for Trump in return for the fact that the U.S. has been “very, very good to Ukraine.” The favor included investigating the son of potential 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden in his dealings as a board member of the Ukrainian gas company Burisma.
It’s also worth noting that weeks before the phone call, Trump personally decided to withhold $400 million of military aid put in place to prevent Russian intervention in Ukraine. Trump claims he held the money in response to corruption in Zelensky’s government — a suspicious claim, considering the fact he would ask Zelensky for his “favor” the following week.
That’s enough about the inquiry itself, though. Let’s move on to how it will or won’t affect the Democrats’ 2020 chances.
According to National Public Radio, Donald Trump’s reelection campaign raised $125 million in its third quarter of fundraising. By this time in 2011, Obama’s re-election campaign had raised $70 million — or, ultimately, 56% of what Trump raised in the same amount of time.
This surge in fundraising, a horrifying reality for Democrats, is likely in response to increased excitement within Trump’s base. There’s a chance that his supporters felt a need to donate out of nervousness relating to the inquiry, but it’s more likely that, like in every Trump controversy, his supporters were fueled by his misconduct.
In all situations, including this one, excitement among Trump’s base spells some level of trouble for Democrats, especially in their 2020 efforts.
The impeachment inquiry isn’t all bad for Democrats, though. If there was no foreseeable benefit, Pelosi likely wouldn’t have moved forward with the inquiry. With more and more evidence against Trump hitting the prints daily, things don’t look good for him in terms of public support.
In a Monmouth University poll conducted Oct. 1, support for Trump’s impeachment was higher than at this point of impeachment for both Nixon and Clinton, at 44%. By this point in impeachment, public support for impeachment was about 39% for Nixon and 29% for Clinton.
Even if Trump isn’t impeached and convicted by Congress, it’s inevitable that his public image will be damaged. Assuming undecided voters put any consideration into Trump’s moral image, Democrats take home the advantage.
Given the dragged-out process of impeachment, Democrats will probably take a few hits over the course of the inquiry. Those who question Trump’s guilt want facts and Democrats might not be able to provide them right away. Public opinion will fluctuate, like always.
In the end, Democrats will likely benefit from Trump’s impeachment inquiry. Regardless of where he stands by the end of the process — out of office, in office or unaffected — Trump’s image will be tarnished, and this works in favor of the Democrats.
Follow the news for more information on the inquiry!
Photo provided by latimes.com